COVID-19 & Public Policy

At the time of writing this piece, it has been 127 days since the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic. Nations have since imposed lockdowns, with some states and cities cycling through shutdowns and re-openings. We are all eagerly waiting for the discovery of a vaccine as soon as possible, but that remains another 6–12 months away, according to some reports. Yet even then, it is unlikely that early versions of such a vaccine will be a panacea; for instance, the annual flu vaccine is 40–60% effective and only protective for several months. There may not be any complete off-switch anytime soon.

Policymakers therefore need to balance an emphasis on both the immediate response of combating spread of the virus alongside addressing medium-term shifts to society. Lockdowns are effective but costly. It would be impossible for any economy to go through the next year with all their businesses shuttered and workers on paid unemployment. Yet re-opening recklessly is also dangerous. Thinking in strict binaries (either one or the other) is unhelpful. The goal should be to rapidly build up capacity for safe re-opening and integration of sectors across society, ensuring minimal spread and maximum ability to treat patients if they become sick. This includes widespread testing and tracing efforts, increased cleaning and sanitation, and encouraging activities be moved outdoors when possible. We should monitor and capitalize on new evidence as it comes out, tailoring it to local contexts while recognizing that we still don’t know nearly as much…